The Complete Guide to ACNH's 4 Turnip Price Patterns — Everything About Predicting the Stalk Market

🌱 "Turnip prices crashed again." "Will we finally get a Large Spike this week?"
The Stalk Market in Animal Crossing: New Horizons (ACNH) is less of a game system and more of a probability puzzle. Depending on which of four patterns your island rolls, you can walk away with up to 6x profit — or take a brutal loss. This post breaks down exactly how turnip price patterns work and how to use the turnip price calculator to nail the perfect sell-time.

🛒 How Turnip Prices Are Determined

The Stalk Market in ACNH runs on a weekly cycle.

🌅 Sunday 5:00 AM to noon: Daisy Mae shows up in front of Nook's Cranny and sells turnips by the bunch (10 turnips) for 90 to 110 Bells. This becomes that week's base price.
📅 Monday through Saturday: Prices refresh twice a day, at 8:00 AM and 12:00 PM. That's 12 price update slots per week.
⏰ The following Sunday: Every turnip you still own rots and disappears. You absolutely have to sell by Saturday afternoon.

Those 12 price updates are not random. Internally, the game picks one of four patterns for the week, and prices fluctuate according to that pattern's rules.

📊 The 4 Patterns in Detail

⚡ 1. Large Spike

The pattern with the highest possible peak. Peaks reach 2.0x to 6.0x the base price.

When it shows up: between Tuesday afternoon and Friday afternoon
One peak only (3 rising slots → peak → 2 falling slots)
Probability: ~20%
Example: base 100 Bells → peak 600 Bells → one bunch = 6,000 Bells profit

📈 2. Small Spike

The second most profitable pattern. Peaks reach about 1.4x to 2.0x the base price.

When it shows up: Tuesday morning to Saturday afternoon
Single peak, but lower than a Large Spike
Probability: ~25%
Example: base 100 Bells → peak 200 Bells → one bunch = 2,000 Bells profit

🌊 3. Fluctuating

The most common pattern. Prices bob up and down within ±40% of the base price.

When it shows up: ups and downs throughout the entire week
Multiple peaks, all relatively low (1.3x to 1.4x)
Probability: ~35% (the most common outcome)
Stable, with minimal losses

📉 4. Decreasing

The worst pattern. Prices drop steadily from Monday onward.

When it shows up: monotonically decreasing Mon morning to Sat afternoon
No peak (Monday has the highest price)
Probability: ~20%
Cut losses early or wait for next week

The key to catching a Large Spike: keep entering prices in the turnip price calculator and watch for the moment "Large Spike probability" jumps above 80%. Right before the peak, prices accelerate from 1.4x → 2.0x → 6.0x — once you see that first 1.4x signal, the next slot is very likely the peak.

🎲 How the Pattern Is Chosen

The game's internal algorithm picks next week's pattern based on this week's, with different weighted probabilities.

This Week's Pattern	Next Week Large Spike	Small Spike	Fluctuating	Decreasing
⚡ Large Spike	5%	25%	20%	50%
📈 Small Spike	15%	15%	35%	35%
🌊 Fluctuating	25%	25%	25%	25%
📉 Decreasing	45%	25%	25%	5%

Useful trick: Back-to-back Large Spikes are extremely rare. The highest odds of a Large Spike come the week after a Decreasing pattern (45%). So if this week is Decreasing, look forward to next week.

🧮 Tips for Using the Turnip Price Calculator

The FindLatLng turnip price calculator calculates the probability of each of the four patterns in real time, based on the prices you enter.

An Efficient Workflow

🌅 Sunday: enter only the base price. All four patterns are roughly equal (25% each).
📅 Monday morning: enter the first price slot. Lower than base means Decreasing odds go up; similar means Fluctuating or Small Spike are more likely.
🔍 Tuesday & Wednesday: enter 2-3 more price slots. By now it's clear whether a Large Spike is still possible.
💰 Wed-Fri peak window: if a price is at or above 1.4x, decide to sell. For a Large Spike, holding for the next slot is also a valid option.
⏰ Friday afternoon onward: if a Large Spike is no longer possible, sell by Saturday afternoon at the latest.

Common mistakes:
• Selling too early — selling at 1.3x on Tuesday could mean missing a 5x Large Spike (only sell early when Large Spike probability is genuinely low)
• Selling too late — anything not sold by Saturday afternoon rots on Sunday
• Skipping price entries — fewer data points means lower calculator accuracy. Enter every slot you can

💬 FAQ

Q. Why does the turnip price show as a negative number (or 0 Bells)?
A. Almost always a typo in your input. The valid range is 36 to 660 Bells. The calculator returns zero pattern matches for inputs outside that range.

Q. Can I sell for a higher price on a friend's island?
A. Yes! Visit another player's island and sell at their island's price. Finding a Large Spike at 600 Bells means a huge profit (sharing Large Spike islands on Discord and ACNH community boards is super common).

Q. Who's 무파니 (Mu-pani) in the Korean version?
A. Mu-pani is the Korean localized name for Daisy Mae — the NPC who sells turnips in front of Nook's Cranny on Sundays. Each region has a different name: Daisy Mae (English), ウリ / Uri (Japanese), 무파니 (Korean).

Q. What about 무코인 / 무트코인 (Mu-coin / Mut-coin)?
A. Korean community slang for the Stalk Market itself. Playful mashups of 무 ("turnip" in Korean) + coin/Bitcoin — because the prices swing as wildly as cryptocurrency. Korean players also call it 무주식 ("turnip stocks").

📝 Wrap-Up

ACNH's turnip system is a four-pattern probability game. The key takeaways:

⚡ Large Spikes are rare but pay up to 6x — timing the peak (Tue-Fri afternoon) is critical
📉 Cut Decreasing losses fast — next week has a 45% chance of a Large Spike
🌊 For Fluctuating weeks, selling at 1.3x is the safe play
🧮 Track pattern probabilities by entering prices — more time-slot data means better accuracy

🌱 Curious which pattern next week's turnips will fall into?

👉 Check it now with the turnip price calculator